Fooled by Randomness
The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Just as coincidence can be confused with causality, so the lucky idiot can be confused with the skilled investor. The realities of randomness and probability almost guarantee that, out of a large pool of random investors, a Warren Buffett will emerge just by luck. Taleb (the founder of Empirica L.L....
This is his collection of ancient wisdom. He is also famous for The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, and Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and Markets, all of which are worth reading. – source