The Art and Science of Prediction
Philip E. Tetlock
Learn the secrets of successful prediction with "Superforecasting," a groundbreaking book that draws on decades of research and real-world examples to explore the art and science of forecasting. Authors Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner have studied a government-funded forecasting tournament involving tens of thousands of volunteers, from filmmakers to ballroom dancers, and uncovered the elusive traits that set expert forecasters apart from the rest of us. Through compelling stories of successes and failures in predicting global events, and interviews with high-level decision makers, the authors offer practical advice on how to gather evidence, think probabilistically, work in teams, and be willing to admit error and change course. This accessible guide is destined to become a classic in the field of decision making.
2020-07-01T12:08:32.000Z@PTetlock one of the best rationality books i've ever read, I recommend it in many of my talks :) – source
2020-02-23T10:55:05.000ZLook, I bought this book on the repeat recommendation of @TimHarford and boy!!!! I feel like screaming after each chapter. So much I didn't even know about myself. EVERY startup founder should read this. A founder’s main job is prediction. – source
Has some good advice on how to improve your ability to make accurate predictions. – source