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Thinking in Bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Annie Duke

"Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke is a guide to making better decisions in an uncertain world. Using examples from business, sports, politics, and poker, Duke shows how embracing uncertainty and thinking in probabilities can lead to long-term success. Learn how to assess what you know and don't know, avoid knee-jerk reactions and biases, and become more confident and successful in decision-making.
Publish Date
Goodreads Rating
Thinking in Bets by @AnnieDuke -- Compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital. Best articulation of "resulting", drawing bad conclusions from confusing process and outcome. Recommend for people operating in the real world.      source
The first chapter alone will change your life.      source
Amazing point: Would your belief in something stand up to the question, “Wanna bet?” If you had to gamble significant money on that belief, would you still feel 100% about it? Or maybe more honestly 60%? This creates healthy skepticism encouraging you to seek the best information instead of just defending your belief. Now objective accuracy wins instead of argument.      source
@philreynolds @AnnieDuke I have read Thinking in Bets. Really enjoyed that part especially. Looking for a book with dozens of examples like that, given various contexts.      source
This book definitely falls in the category I loosely refer to as, “self-help,” which I typically skim more than dive into, but I read this book all the way through because I found the premise so intriguing.      source
@scott_seiver @AnnieDuke Because (in this order): a) the book is really good and I believe it is a net positive for the world if people read it and b) I have heard both sides of the story unlike almost everyone else which, with all due respect Scott, you haven’t.      source
A great book!      source
If you haven’t bought @AnnieDuke’s book yet, what are you waiting for?! Heard her speak twice last week in Chapel Hill and they were simply two of best talks on Decision Making, Discipline and Strategy I have ever heard.      source
An awesome book at an awesome price. Buy and read if you have not already!      source
Separate decisions from outcomes. A good decision might still end in an undesirable outcome, and a bad decision might work out great. This was a massive insight from the book "Thinking in bets". It changed my thinking about decision-making.      source
I just read QUIT: The Power Of Knowing When To Walk Away by @AnnieDuke. This is the second @AnnieDuke book for me…the first was THINKING IN BETS an ENORMOUSLY helpful book during 2020 COVID decision-making! “Contrary to popular belief, winners quit a lot. That’s how they win.”      source
@AnnieDuke A lot of Howard's latest memo is attributed to @AnnieDuke book, Thinking in Bets. I reviewed this book last year and would say it's a must read for anyone interested in trading and investing. (11/11)      source
#todaysgoodread Superb book      source