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Thinking in Bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Annie Duke

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a p...
Publish Date
May 7
First Published in 2018
Goodreads rating
Jul 05, 2018
Thinking in Bets by @AnnieDuke -- Compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital. Best articulation of "resulting", drawing bad conclusions from confusing process and outcome. Recommend for people operating in the real world.      source
The first chapter alone will change your life.      source
Jul 05, 2018
Amazing point: Would your belief in something stand up to the question, “Wanna bet?” If you had to gamble significant money on that belief, would you still feel 100% about it? Or maybe more honestly 60%? This creates healthy skepticism encouraging you to seek the best information instead of just defending your belief. Now objective accuracy wins instead of argument.      source
Oct 23, 2020
@philreynolds @AnnieDuke I have read Thinking in Bets. Really enjoyed that part especially. Looking for a book with dozens of examples like that, given various contexts.      source
Mar 20, 2019
This book definitely falls in the category I loosely refer to as, “self-help,” which I typically skim more than dive into, but I read this book all the way through because I found the premise so intriguing.      source
Apr 18, 2018
@scott_seiver @AnnieDuke Because (in this order): a) the book is really good and I believe it is a net positive for the world if people read it and b) I have heard both sides of the story unlike almost everyone else which, with all due respect Scott, you haven’t.      source
Dec 21, 2019
A great book!      source
Nov 02, 2018
If you haven’t bought @AnnieDuke’s book yet, what are you waiting for?! Heard her speak twice last week in Chapel Hill and they were simply two of best talks on Decision Making, Discipline and Strategy I have ever heard.      source
Aug 16, 2019
An awesome book at an awesome price. Buy and read if you have not already!      source
Apr 06, 2021
Separate decisions from outcomes. A good decision might still end in an undesirable outcome, and a bad decision might work out great. This was a massive insight from the book "Thinking in bets". It changed my thinking about decision-making.      source
Jan 19, 2020
@AnnieDuke A lot of Howard's latest memo is attributed to @AnnieDuke book, Thinking in Bets. I reviewed this book last year and would say it's a must read for anyone interested in trading and investing. (11/11)      source
Apr 12, 2020
#todaysgoodread Superb book      source